Backtest Results
Signal predictions vs. 5-day excess return vs. S&P 500 — ±2% neutral band
51.7%
Overall Accuracy
51%
neutral accuracy
35/69 calls
67%
bearish accuracy
6/9 calls
44%
bullish accuracy
4/9 calls
Accuracy by Quarter (all companies)
All Predictions (87)
| Ticker | Quarter | Score | Signal | Actual | 5d Return | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Q1 '22 | 32.7 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q1 '23 | 54.3 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q1 '24 | 36.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q2 '22 | 33.0 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q2 '23 | 34.5 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q2 '24 | 22.8 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| AAPL | Q3 '22 | 38.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q3 '23 | 31.7 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q3 '24 | 17.1 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AAPL | Q4 '22 | 41.1 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| AAPL | Q4 '23 | 32.8 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AMZN | Q1 '22 | 37.5 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| AMZN | Q1 '23 | 33.0 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| AMZN | Q1 '24 | 27.1 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AMZN | Q2 '22 | 30.3 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| AMZN | Q2 '23 | 29.1 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| AMZN | Q2 '24 | 40.6 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AMZN | Q3 '22 | 32.3 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| AMZN | Q3 '23 | 18.5 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| AMZN | Q4 '22 | 50.3 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| AMZN | Q4 '23 | 30.1 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| GOOGL | Q1 '22 | 41.3 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| GOOGL | Q1 '23 | 54.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| GOOGL | Q1 '24 | 21.9 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| GOOGL | Q2 '22 | 41.7 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| GOOGL | Q2 '23 | 32.4 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| GOOGL | Q2 '24 | 29.0 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| GOOGL | Q3 '22 | 41.9 | bearish | bearish | — | ✓ |
| GOOGL | Q3 '23 | 28.6 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| GOOGL | Q4 '22 | 34.1 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| GOOGL | Q4 '23 | 37.5 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| JPM | Q1 '22 | 60.7 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q1 '23 | 44.5 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q1 '24 | 44.5 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q2 '22 | 50.8 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q2 '23 | 51.1 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| JPM | Q2 '24 | 33.8 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| JPM | Q3 '22 | 42.0 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| JPM | Q3 '23 | 47.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q3 '24 | 43.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q4 '22 | 46.7 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| JPM | Q4 '23 | 41.0 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| META | Q1 '22 | 50.3 | bearish | bearish | — | ✓ |
| META | Q1 '23 | 49.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| META | Q1 '24 | 40.3 | bearish | bearish | — | ✓ |
| META | Q2 '22 | 50.2 | bearish | bearish | — | ✓ |
| META | Q2 '23 | 51.1 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| META | Q2 '24 | 36.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| META | Q3 '22 | 43.8 | bearish | bearish | — | ✓ |
| META | Q3 '23 | 39.2 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| META | Q4 '22 | 41.5 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| META | Q4 '23 | 40.7 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| MSFT | Q1 '22 | 36.4 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| MSFT | Q1 '23 | 42.0 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q1 '24 | 21.8 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| MSFT | Q2 '22 | 11.2 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q2 '23 | 40.0 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q2 '24 | 27.2 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| MSFT | Q3 '22 | 38.0 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q3 '23 | 38.0 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q3 '24 | 24.1 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q4 '22 | 40.5 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| MSFT | Q4 '23 | 33.0 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| MSFT | Q4 '24 | 42.0 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| NVDA | Q1 '22 | 31.5 | bullish | bearish | — | ✗ |
| NVDA | Q1 '23 | 37.8 | bearish | neutral | — | ✗ |
| NVDA | Q1 '24 | 27.5 | bullish | bullish | — | ✓ |
| NVDA | Q2 '22 | 32.1 | neutral | bearish | — | ✗ |
| NVDA | Q2 '23 | 62.2 | bearish | bearish | — | ✓ |
| NVDA | Q2 '24 | 34.7 | bullish | bearish | — | ✗ |
| NVDA | Q3 '22 | 25.0 | bullish | bullish | — | ✓ |
| NVDA | Q3 '23 | 42.9 | bearish | neutral | — | ✗ |
| NVDA | Q3 '24 | 31.9 | bullish | bullish | — | ✓ |
| NVDA | Q4 '22 | 28.5 | bullish | bullish | — | ✓ |
| NVDA | Q4 '23 | 32.1 | bullish | neutral | — | ✗ |
| NVDA | Q4 '24 | 42.7 | bullish | bearish | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q1 '22 | 38.1 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q1 '23 | 37.5 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q1 '24 | 34.3 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| WMT | Q2 '23 | 51.6 | bearish | bullish | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q2 '24 | 28.8 | bullish | neutral | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q3 '22 | 30.9 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| WMT | Q3 '23 | 38.0 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q3 '24 | 40.5 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |
| WMT | Q4 '22 | 29.3 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| WMT | Q4 '23 | 36.5 | neutral | neutral | — | ✓ |
| WMT | Q4 '24 | 36.6 | neutral | bullish | — | ✗ |